The Market Is Betting
the Strait Opens
in 6 Weeks.
We Think That's Wrong.
The last time an oil shock of this size hit, the S&P fell 48% in real terms. The 2026 Hormuz closure has removed twice as much global supply as 1973. We rated 38 ETFs across 9 asset classes so you know exactly what to own — and what to get out of.
| Ticker | ETF Name | Asset Class | Rating | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy Equity | ||
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | Commodities | ||
| TIP | iShares TIPS Bond ETF | Fixed Income | ||
"The cost of being wrong about hedging is 2–3%. The cost of not hedging if this persists is 25–40%. That asymmetry is why this playbook exists."
Everyone Knows Oil Is Up.
This Is What Comes Next.
The 1973 OPEC embargo removed 9% of global supply and triggered a decade of stagflation. The 2026 Hormuz closure has removed 20% — more than twice that share.
38 ETFs Scored — Both Sides of the Trade
We started with 3,000+ ETFs and narrowed to 38 through a 4-step process. Every rating tells you what to own — and what to actively avoid. Knowing what to sell is as important as knowing what to buy.
Three Scenarios. Specific Triggers for Each.
Rapid resolution in 4–6 weeks. Sustained disruption for 6+ months. Escalation to Saudi Arabia or UAE. Each scenario has explicit rebalancing triggers tied to CPI prints, GDP growth, and Brent crude levels.
50 Years of Evidence — Not Projections
Commodities returned +586% from 1971–1980. Gold delivered +35% per year from 1973–1979. The S&P 500 lost 2% per year in real terms. These are the measured outcomes — not forecasts.
Your 60/40 Has 18 Positions to Address
18 ETFs rated Underweight or Avoid — instruments most investors already hold. SPY, QQQ, TLT, BND, HYG are all on the reduce list. The playbook shows exactly what to move out of and what to move into.
See What's Inside
A preview of what you'll access after signing up.
Direct exposure to the 22 largest US energy companies. At $110 oil, integrated energy companies see profit per barrel jump from $50–60 to $90–100 — a 50–100% earnings expansion with zero volume change.
Long-duration treasuries are the single most vulnerable fixed income asset in a stagflationary environment. The 10-Year Treasury lost 3% real annually during 1973–1982 as yields surged from 6% to 13%. TLT's 15+ year duration amplifies this risk.
Strait reopens. Oil falls to $70–80. Specific rebalancing steps — reduce commodity overweight, rotate into growth. The stagflation positioning served as insurance.
Oil above $100 sustained. The 1973 playbook activates. Maximum overweight to energy and commodities. Full portfolio construction guide for this environment.
Conflict spreads to Saudi Arabia or UAE. Oil could exceed $200. Tail-risk positioning with specific instruments and maximum allocation shifts.
Three data points: CPI prints, GDP growth, Brent crude. Specific thresholds that trigger each rebalancing action. Designed to be reviewed monthly.
The 1973 Playbook Rewarded
Investors Who Positioned Early.
The 2026 Setup Is Larger.
Get instant access to the complete Stagflation Playbook — 38 ETF ratings, full portfolio construction guide, three scenario frameworks, and monthly rebalancing triggers.