We'll Tell You
What to Own
in a Stagflation.
And What to Get Out Of.
The last time we had stagflation, the S&P was down 48%. The 2026 Hormuz closure is 2x the size of that 1973 shock. Is your portfolio prepared? We rated 38 ETFs across 9 asset classes so you know exactly what to own — and what to exit.
| Ticker | ETF Name | Asset Class | Rating | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | Energy Equity | ||
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | Commodities | ||
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury | Fixed Income | ||
"I built this because the 1973 playbook is clear — winners won big, losers lost badly, and the pattern repeated across three distinct episodes. You just have to be in the right positions before it plays out."
This Isn't a Hot Take.
It's a Scoring Framework.
Every ETF is rated on five factors. The math is published. You can check the work.
8 ETFs to Overweight. 5 to Avoid Entirely.
XLE (score 92) and GLD (score 90) are the top-rated positions. TLT (score 32) is the highest-conviction avoid. Long-duration Treasuries were among the worst-performing assets during every historical stagflation episode.
A Rebalancing Trigger for Every Scenario.
If the Strait reopens in 4–6 weeks: here's what to do. If oil reaches $150: here's what changes. If the conflict spreads: tail-risk framework. Three distinct scenarios with exact thresholds that trigger each response.
The 1973–1982 Scorecard Is the Evidence Base.
Broad commodities +586% (1971–1980). Gold +35% per year (1973–1979). S&P 500 −2% per year in real terms. Long-duration bonds −3% real per year. Measured outcomes — not projections.
Your 60/40 Has 18 Positions to Address.
Most investors already hold ETFs rated Underweight or Avoid — SPY (score 52), QQQ (score 48), TLT (score 32). The playbook shows what to reduce and what to move into, with specific allocation targets.
See What's Inside
A preview of what you'll access after signing up.
Direct exposure to the 22 largest US energy companies. At $110 oil, integrated energy companies see profit per barrel jump from $50–60 to $90–100 — a 50–100% earnings expansion with zero volume change.
Long-duration Treasuries are the single most vulnerable fixed income asset in stagflation. The 10-Year Treasury lost 3% real annually during 1973–1982 as yields surged from 6% to 13%. TLT's 15+ year duration amplifies this risk significantly.
Strait reopens. Oil falls to $70–80. Specific steps to reduce commodity overweight and rotate back to growth. The stagflation positioning served as insurance.
This is the 1973 environment. Oil above $100 sustained. Maximum overweight to energy and commodities. Full portfolio construction guide inside.
Conflict spreads to Saudi Arabia or UAE. Oil could exceed $200. Tail-risk positioning framework with specific instruments and allocation shifts.
Three data points drive all rebalancing: CPI prints, GDP growth, Brent crude levels. Specific thresholds that trigger each response.
Know What to Own.
Know What to Sell.
Full access to the Stagflation Playbook — 38 ETF ratings, complete portfolio reallocation guide, three scenario frameworks, and a monthly monitoring checklist.